The best prop bets for the 2019/20 Fantasy Premier League season
The powers that be at FPL towers certainly surprised a few people last week with the launch the Official Fantasy Premier League game for the 2019/20 campaign. This was a little bit earlier than anticipated and may have prompted one or two Fantasy Premier League managers to cut short their holidays in order to begin that pain-staking drafting process!
Squads will be sliced and diced between now and the start of the season as managers look to settle on that winning formula. This is no easy task since there is so much information to consider – will premium defenders be essential, what sort of impact will VAR have on set-pieces, can ‘must-have’ midfielders be accommodated within the budget to name just a few, so it was refreshing to see Betonline come out with a plethora of prop bets that may well serve as a welcome distraction!
We’ve decided to take a look at them to see if we can spot any value so without further ado let’s get cracking.
Matches where Harry Kane hits Maximum Bonus Points … Over/Under 5.5 … Odds: 1.77/2.00 (-130/+100)
Harry Kane, who tied the knot over the summer, will be looking to put his injury woes behind him when the new season gets under way.
All eyes will be on his troublesome ankle but if he can stay injury free then he shouldn’t have too much trouble in beating this line. His shot volume might not be what it once was and the eye test also suggests that he has been playing a little bit deeper but forwards are still massively favoured by the bonus points system, so, if the goals flow, the ‘maximums’ look sure to follow!
Pick: Harry Kane hits Maximum Bonus Points in Over 5.5 matches @1.77 (-130)
Andrew Robertson vs Trent-Alexander Arnold …. Odds: 1.95/1.80 (-105 /-125)
Andrew Robertson was the highest scoring defender in the game last season and he has been priced at the same level (£7m) as his Liverpool team-mate. It will take a brave man to back against the Scottish left-back but Trent Alexander-Arnold could be the right man to lower his colours. His quickly-taken corner proved to be the touch of genius that took the Reds to the Champions League final but it’s his explosive nature which enabled him to feature in the ‘Dream Team’ on 8 separate occasions throughout the course of the 2018/19 Fantasy Premier League season that really caught our eye.
Pick: Trent Alexander-Arnold to score more FPL points that Andrew Robertson @1.80 (-125)
Matches where Virgil van Dijk gets Bonus Points …Over/Under 10.5 Matches … Odds: 1.87/1.87 (-115 /-115)
Virgil van Dijk picked up at least 1 bonus point on 12 occasions throughout the course of his 2017/18 campaign and currently heads the betting for the Ballon d’Or trophy, ahead of the one and only Lionel Messi.
However, due to the nature of the FPL scoring system, clean sheets will be essential if he is to beat this line. Liverpool did amass 21 last season, a remarkable effort although it still wasn’t sufficient for them to claim that elusive Premier League crown. For what its worth, Chelsea hold the record with 25 shutouts which they recorded back in 2004/5.
It’s worth noting that the Reds outperformed their xGA (expected goals against) by over 7 goals last season, suggesting that they might find clean sheets a little harder to come by this time around, even if they do have the 2018/19 PFA Player of the Year in their ranks.
Pick: Virgil van Dijk gets Bonus Points in Under 10.5 Matches @1.87 (-115)
Alisson vs Ederson … Odds: 1.87/1.87 (-115 /-115)
Another tight match-up but if we focus on Premier League form in 2019 only it is hard to look past Ederson. The Citizens have won 17 out of the 18 Premier League games they have played in the calendar year to date conceding just 7 goals in the process.
Pick: Ederson to score more FPL points than Allison @1.87 (-115)
Paul Pogba Dream Team Appearances Over/Under 4.5 Gameweeks … Odds: 1.87/1.87 (-115 /-115)
Despite expressing an interest in pursuing a new challenge elsewhere, it looks like the Frenchman will remain at Old Trafford for another season at least.
Penalties are likely to be key to the outcome of this particular prop and there is no evidence to suggest that Pogba will relinquish that particular responsibility anytime soon. Despite Pogba’s somewhat unorthodox approach (see below), new rules coming in this season could work in his favour since they insist on goalkeepers keeping one foot on the line when a penalty is being taken.
The World Cup winner has converted 5 of the 6 Premier League penalties he has taken so far in 2019. Note that he must still be a Manchester United player on 1st September 2019 for bets to stand on this prop.
Pick: Paul Pogba to make over 4.5 Dream Team appearances @1.87 (-115)
What will Aguero be valued at on Christmas Day? … £12m or more/Less than £12m … Odds: 1.87/1.87 (-115 /-115)
Sergio Aguero racked up more Premier League game minutes than he managed in any of the previous 3 seasons as he helped Manchester City to retain their title. However, the 33 year old might not have things all his own way this time around. Gabriel Jesus has been handed the number 9 shirt and the Brazilian striker will surely be hoping for more opportunities when the new campaign kicks off. If that happens, we can expect Aguero owners to look elsewhere resulting in the inevitable price drop.
Pick: Sergio Aguero to be valued at less than £12m on Christmas Day @1.87 (-115)
Christian Pulisic to be top Chelsea points scorer … Yes/No Odds: 5.00 /1.16 (+400 /-600)
This looks a big ask for the Chelsea new boy as he looks to fill the sizeable boots of the departed Eden Hazard. Pulisic, who has been starring for the USA at the CONCACAF Gold Cup, will need to smash through the 150 point barrier if he is to have any chance of being top Chelsea points scorer and that might prove to be a bridge too far in his Premier League debut season based on his CV to date.
Pick: Christian Pulisic not to be top Chelsea points scorer @1.16 (-600)
Any player to score 25 points or more in a match … Yes/No … Odds: 1.87/1.87 (-115/-115)
This prop just offers entertain value if you go for the ‘Yes’ since you will be able to cheer on any player that looks like he has a chance of running up a huge score. It may even make you feel a little bit better if your rival managers have the player in question in their line-ups for that particular gameweek and you don’t!
Pick: Any player to score 25 FPL points or more @1.87 (-115)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Total Bonus Points … Over/Under 29.5 Points … Odds: 1.87/1.87 (-115/-115)
Unai Emery is a hard manager to predict but one stat inclines us to lean heavily towards the ‘over’ here. Aubameyang managed to complete 90 minutes in his last 10 appearances for the Gunners in all competitions last season. If that trend continues when the new campaign gets under way, his goalscoring record should be sufficient to see him accumulate the desired amount of bonus points needed to beat this line.
Pick: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score over 29.5 Bonus Points @1.87 (-115)
Raheem Sterling vs Sadio Mane … Odds: 1.80/1.95 (-125/-105)
Raheem Sterling (£12m) and Sadio Mane (£11.5m) were separated by just 3 points last season and the former has been installed as marginal favourite this time around.
Mane outperformed his xG (expected goals) by over 5 goals last season, proving himself to be a real threat in the air in the process and it was enough to see him tied for 22 goals alongside Mo Salah and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the race for the Golden Boot.
Sterling, on the other hand, just seems to get better with age (he’s still only 24!) making it very difficult to choose between the pair.
Pick: No bet
How many FPL Points will Mo Salah get? … Over/Under 251.5 Points … Odds: 1.87/1.87 (-115/-115)
Salah accumulated 259 points last time around, following up his record-breaking haul of 303 points from the season before to once again finish as the top scoring player in the game.
Only time will tell if the introduction of VAR results in more penalties being awarded but it could play a part in the outcome of this particular proposition bet. Salah is Liverpool’s second choice penalty taker behind James Milner but the latter could struggle for game minutes this time around opening the door for the Egyptian to convert more spot-kicks.
Pick: Salah to score more than 251.5 points @1.87 (-115)
The new Fantasy Premier League season is almost upon us so let us know which props you think offer the best value.
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